Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO(2) taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO(2) measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO(2) levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

A Portable,Battery-Operated,Immediate-Readout Dust-Particle Analyzer

A portable, battery-operated, electro-optical dust analyzer operating on the principle of light scattering from individual dust particles in air drawn through a high-intensity light field has been developed for monitoring dust levels where external power may be unavailable. The instrument counts and size-discriminates airborne particles over two size ranges upwards of 0.3 microns with immediate readout. A dilution mechanism permits analysis of particulate concentrations as high as 2400 particles/cm³ on each channel. The self-contained Ni-Cd batteries are rechargeable. Total weight, including batteries and all components, is approximately 14 Ib. Total power used, mainly for pumping a filtered air sheath at 300 cm/sec and for the light source, is less than 34 watts. Another unique feature is the flow system designed for turbulence suppression.

Electronic calibration in terms of number of particles/cm³ for each size range is accomplished in the laboratory by means of a pulse generator with respect to which the readout indicator is calibrated for count. The input voltages to the pulse-height discriminators are appropriately attenuated for various pulse amplitudes simulating the output of the light-sensitive pickup, a photomultiplier tube.Pulse height as a function of particle size was measured for polystyrene latex beads ranging from 0.3 to 2 microns in diameter. Good correlation is obtained with results from commercial analyzers.

Field surveys have been undertaken with the CAES prototype analyzer at various sites in central Pennsylvania and at numerous sampling points within the cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Particulate concentrations as high as 1400 particles/ cm³ have been measured at a coal cleaning plant.     

Element patterns in albatrosses and petrels: Influence of trophic position, foraging range, and prey type

We investigated the concentrations of 22 essential and non-essential elements among a community of Procellariiformes (and their prey) to identify the extent to which trophic position and foraging range governed element accumulation. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) was used to characterise trophic (δ¹⁵N) and spatial patterns (δ¹³C) among species. Few consistent patterns were observed in element distributions among species and diet appeared to be highly influential in some instances. Arsenic levels in seabird red blood cells correlated with δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C, demonstrating the importance of trophic position and foraging range for arsenic distribution. Arsenic concentrations in prey varied significantly across taxa, and in the strength of association with δ¹⁵N values (trophic level). In most instances, element patterns in Procellariiformes showed the clearest separation among species, indicating that a combination of prey selection and other complex species-specific characteristics (e.g. moult patterns) were generally more important determining factors than trophic level per se.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Effects of Nighttime Chemistry upon the Transport of Ozone and Ozone Precursors

It has been recognized for several years that ozone in rural areas can exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for photochemical oxidant whirh was 0.08 ppm for one hour, not to be exceeded more than once per year. During the summer of 1973, the NAAQS was exceeded from 15 to 37% of the time at four rural monitoring sites in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia.¹ This is a greater violation rate than is found in many urban areas. Dimitriades and Altshuller² have enumerated four possible sources for this rural ozone: (a) transport from urban areas, (b) local photochemical generation from urban ozone precursors, (c) local photochemical generation from precursors of rural origin which may be man-made or natural, and (d) injection of stratospheric ozone into the rural area. This paper considers the chemistry pertinent to the first two of these possible sources of rural ozone, namely the long distance (overnight) transport of ozone and ozone precursors.     

Effects of pen bedding and feeding high crude protein diets on manure composition and greenhouse gas emissions from a feedlot pen surface

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from concentrated animal feeding operations vary by stage of production and management practices. The objective of this research was to study the effect of two dietary crude protein levels (12 and 16%) fed to beef steers in pens with or without corn stover bedding. Manure characteristics and GHG emissions were measured from feedlot pen surfaces. Sixteen equal-sized feedlot pens (19?×?23 m) were used. Eight were bedded approximately twice a week with corn stover and the remaining eight feedlot pens were not bedded. Angus steers (n = 138) were blocked by live weights (lighter and heavier) with 7 to 10 animals per pen. The trial was a 2?×?2 factorial design with factors of two protein levels and two bedding types (bedding vs. non bedding), with four replicates. The study was conducted from June through September and consisted of four ?28-day periods. Manure from each pen was scrapped once every 28 days and composite manure samples from each pen were collected. Air samples from pen surfaces were sampled in Tedlar bags using a Vac-U-Chamber coupled with a portable wind tunnel and analyzed with a greenhouse gas gas chromatograph within 24 hr of sampling. The manure samples were analyzed for crude protein (CP), total nitrogen (TN), ammonia (NH₃), total volatile fatty acid (TVFA), total carbon (TC), total phosphorus (TP), and potassium (K). The air samples were analyzed for methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations. The concentration of TN was significantly higher (p < 0.05) in manure from pens with cattle fed the high protein diets. The volatile fatty acids (VFAs) such as acetic, propionic, isobutyric, butyric, isovaleric, and valeric acids concentrations were similar across both treatments. There were no significant differences in pen surface GHG emissions across manure management and dietary crude protein levels.

Implications: Livestock manure produces odor and emits GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) at different stages of production and management practices that have significant environmental concerns. Thus, it is important to measure GHG contributions from different sources and develop appropriate mitigation strategies for minimizing GHG contribution from livestock production facilities. Two dietary protein levels (12 and 16%) fed to beef steers in pens with or without corn stover bedding were studied. The results indicated that dietary protein levels and bedding vs. no bedding had very little effect on GHG emissions and manure composition under open feedlot conditions in North Dakota climatic conditions and management practices.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Analysis of 3-year observations of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 from a semi-rural site in China

In-situ measurements of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) can be used to the assess their global and regional emissions and to check for compliance with phase-out schedules under Montreal protocol and its amendments. The atmospheric mixing ratios of CFC-11 (CCl₃F), CFC-12 (CCl₂F₂) and CFC-113 (CCl₂F–CClF₂) have been measured by an automated in-situ GC-ECDs system at the regional Chinese Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station Shangdianzi (SDZ), from November 2006 to October 2009. The time series for these three principal CFCs showed large episodic events and background conditions occurred for approximately 30% (CFC-11), 52% (CFC-12) and 56% (CFC-113) of the measurements. The mean background mixing ratios for CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 were 244.8 ppt (parts per trillion, 10^?12, molar) 539.6 ppt and 76.8 ppt, respectively, for 2006–2009. The enhanced CFC mixing ratios compared to AGAGE sites such as Trinidad Head (THD), US and Mace Head (MHD), Ireland suggest regional influences even during background conditions at SDZ, which is much closer to highly-populated areas. Between 2006 and 2009 background CFCs exhibited downward trends at rates of ?2.0 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-11, ?2.5 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-12 and ?0.7 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-113. De-trended 3-year average background seasonal cycles displayed small fluctuations with peak-to-trough amplitudes of 1.0 ± 0.02 ppt (0.4%) for background CFC-11, 1.3 ± 2.1 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-12 and 0.2 ± 0.4 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-113. On the other hand, during pollution periods these CFCs showed much larger seasonal cycles of 11.2 ± 10.7 ppt (5%) for CFC-11, 7.5 ± 6.5 ppt (2%) for CFC-12 and 1.0 ± 1.2 ppt (1.2%) for CFC-113, with apparent winter minima and early summer maxima. This enhancement was attributed to prevailing wind directions from urban regions in summer and to enhanced anthropogenic sources during the warm season. In general, horizontal winds from northeast showed negative contribution to atmospheric CFCs loading, whereas South Western advection (urban sector: Beijing) had positive contributions.